Bloomberg analysts outline three possible scenarios for how the war in Ukraine could end

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday, analysts at Bloomberg have published an article outlining three possible scenarios for how the war could end.

While a path to peace remains “highly uncertain,” as Putin shows “no inclination that he wants to compromise,” Bloomberg writes, the “broad contours” of a settlement on Ukraine appear to be taking shape. Its analysts predict three possibilities:

• The baseline (and most likely) scenario: The Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia remain in limbo under Moscow’s de facto control. Some territorial exchanges involving the parts of Russia’s Kursk region currently occupied by Ukrainian forces are possible. Ukraine receives certain security guarantees, with much of the negotiations focusing on how strong they would be, though NATO membership is likely off the table. Europe tries to persuade the U.S. to maintain support for Ukraine while E.U. countries build up their own defenses.
• The best-case scenario (‘ideal’ for Kyiv): The U.S. and E.U. countries pledge to intervene if Russia violates the terms of a peace deal. However, Bloomberg notes that even Ukraine’s staunchest supporters are wary of the risk of direct contact with Russia. Instead, Kyiv’s allies might commit to increasing military aid to Ukraine, reimposing or strengthening sanctions on Russia, helping develop Ukraine’s defense industry, and reforming its armed forces. This scenario could also open the door for Ukraine to join the E.U. within a decade, strengthening the bloc’s eastern flank in the process.
• The worst scenario (and a ‘nightmare’ for Kyiv): In this scenario, Trump loses interest in Ukraine’s future before any deal is reached, cutting off military and financial aid and leaving Europe to handle the situation on its own.