Trump’s plan for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine calls for freezing the front line and territorial exchanges. Here’s what that might look like, in four maps.
Donald Trump is aggressively pushing his version of a peace plan that he claims could bring an end to the active phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The most contentious element of the U.S. president’s proposal is Washington’s recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, a position that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vehemently opposes. However, Trump’s plan also includes several other controversial points, such as a ceasefire along the current front line and the exchange of certain territories. Meduza maps out the current front line and examines which areas might be included in Trump’s version of an “exchange.”
First, a few notes
To begin with, we have doubts about the accuracy of some of the reports about the plan, making it difficult to predict the possible fate of certain areas on the front.
On the map, we’ve marked the entire part of the Kharkiv region occupied by Russian forces as territory that Russia would need to withdraw from. However, this might not be accurate. The only source of information about this concession from Russia is Axios (other outlets didn’t mention the Kharkiv region in their coverage of Trump’s plan), which cites Ukrainian negotiators as its sources. Neither the American nor the Russian delegations have made similar statements.
Additionally, withdrawing from the vast area of the Kharkiv region between Kupyansk and Svatove would jeopardize Russia’s ability to defend the occupied portion of the Luhansk region in the future — should Ukrainian forces later attempt to reclaim the area.
We’ve also marked the occupied Kinburn Spit in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region as territory that Russia will need to vacate. This area is not part of Trump’s plan for Russian territorial claims (again, only according to Axios). However, under Russian law, the spit is considered part of the annexed Kherson region, so it’s unlikely that Russia plans to return it to Ukraine.
On the map, we’ve indicated the areas of Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions currently under Ukrainian control as territory that Ukraine will have to withdraw from. Trump’s plan doesn’t call for these lands to be returned to Russian control. However, Vladimir Putin has previously stated that the full liberation of the Kursk region is a direct goal for the Russian army. It’s reasonable to assume that Russia would take a similar stance on the Belgorod region.
Ukraine may justify its withdrawal from Russian territory by pointing to concessions from Moscow, such as the partial or full liberation of occupied parts of the Sumy or Kharkiv region. However, it’s important to note that Putin has previously emphasized that Russia opposes any “territorial swaps” with Ukraine.
Finally, it’s crucial to consider the conflicting signals from Russia regarding its own plans for halting hostilities along the current front line. While Financial Times sources reported on April 22 that Putin had agreed to a ceasefire scenario, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated the following day that Russia still claims the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in their entirety.