Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy targets have done hundreds of millions of dollars of damage over six months, new report finds

Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities over the past six months have caused an estimated 59.4 billion rubles ($706.5 million) in damage, according to a new joint investigation by RFE/RL and the Ukrainian project Frontelligence Insight. The findings are based on more than 100 satellite images showing the aftermath of the attacks. Meduza shares key insights from the report.

Using data from the platform GeoConfirmed, journalists and activists from RFE/RL and Frontelligence Insight compiled a database tracking attacks on Russian and occupied Ukrainian territories between September 1, 2024, and February 12, 2025. According to the data, 67 percent of Ukrainian strikes were classified as “successful,” though the report doesn’t specify whether this figure includes only energy infrastructure or also military targets. In other cases, the outcome was either unclear or Ukraine’s responsibility could not be confirmed.

The investigation found that November 2024 saw the highest number of “successful” strikes on Russian and occupied territory. Initially, Ukrainian attacks primarily targeted military facilities, such as ammunition depots, but over time, the focus shifted to oil and gas storage sites, as well as refineries.

To illustrate its methodology, RFE/RL highlighted the case of a Lukoil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region, which produces about four percent of Russia’s gasoline and seven percent of its diesel fuel. Ukrainian drones struck the facility on February 3, damaging a crude oil distillation unit and a loading rack. The refinery shut down for a week before resuming operations at 60 percent capacity.

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In 2023, the refinery reported revenues of nearly 70 billion rubles ($832.6 million). RFE/RL estimated that the weeklong shutdown resulted in daily losses of 192 million rubles ($2.3 million), totaling approximately 1.3 billion rubles ($15.5 million). Losses from operating at reduced capacity were estimated at between 1.8 billion ($21.4 million) and 2.9 billion rubles ($34.4 million), bringing the total damage — excluding repair costs — to between 3.2 billion ($38.1 million) and 4.2 billion rubles ($50 million).

Over the past six months, Ukrainian drones have targeted oil storage facilities 12 times, refineries nine times, oil pumping stations twice, and a gas storage facility once, according to the report. In total, 50 oil tanks were destroyed, and another 47 were damaged.

The most costly attack in terms of total losses occurred on October 7, when drones struck 11 storage tanks in Feodosia with a combined capacity of 69,000 cubic meters (2.4 million cubic feet). The damage from this strike may have exceeded 3.3 billion rubles ($39.2 million), according to the investigation.

Experts interviewed for the report noted that strikes on refineries and gas processing plants cause more significant harm to the Russian economy than attacks on fuel depots, as these facilities are more technologically complex and costly to repair.

A year ago, Reuters reported that at least seven Russian refineries had shut down processing units due to Ukrainian drone attacks in the first quarter of 2024. At the time, the agency estimated that these disruptions affected the processing of 4.6 million tons of oil, or about seven percent of Russia’s total refining capacity.

On March 18, following a phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, the Kremlin announced that Putin had agreed to Trump’s proposal for a 30-day mutual halt to strikes on energy infrastructure and had issued corresponding orders to the military. The Kremlin and Russia’s Defense Ministry maintain that the temporary moratorium on energy site attacks has been in effect since March 18, when the agreement was reached. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that the ceasefire on energy infrastructure only took effect on March 25. In recent days, Russia’s Defense Ministry has repeatedly accused Ukraine of continuing strikes on energy facilities.