‘The system could collapse’ A ceasefire would mean hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers returning home. Moscow is bracing for chaos.
The shape of a potential peace agreement in Ukraine remains uncertain, but a deal appears closer than ever. Last week, when U.S. and Ukrainian delegations met in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian side reportedly supported a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire — though Russia later dismissed the offer. On Sunday, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff suggested an agreement could be reached within “weeks” and hinted at a range of possible concessions by Ukraine that he claimed were under discussion. Meanwhile, according to the Telegram channel Faridaily, the Kremlin is already preparing for one of the biggest challenges Russian society will face when the war ends: the return of hundreds of thousands of traumatized soldiers. Meduza shares the channel’s findings in English.
As Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv continue discussions over a possible peace agreement, Russian officials are preparing for the domestic challenges that will come with the war’s end. A ceasefire could lead to a massive influx of troops returning home, and the Russian authorities seem well aware of the difficulties this will bring, Faridaily reports. Many of these veterans are expected to suffer from PTSD and may also exhibit violent tendencies, according to the outlet. The channel’s team spoke with specialists working on rehabilitation programs for Russian war veterans. The sources predicted a range of major societal issues, including:
- Rampant drug and alcohol abuse: Many returning soldiers are likely to turn to alcohol or drugs to cope with their physical and emotional trauma, experts told Faridaily. “The first year after the war will be a year of heavy drinking,” a source from Russia’s Labor Ministry said. A veterans’ rehabilitation specialist noted that many who have already returned with injuries, concussions, or lost limbs are struggling to reintegrate into civilian life — especially in rural areas — and have started drinking heavily. One government source said that many veterans return from the war with a deep sense of grievance: “I’m a hero, I fought for you, and you’re just worthless cowards who stayed behind.”
- Unemployment, crime, and debt: Having earned millions of rubles (equal to tens of thousands of dollars) on military contracts, many soldiers may be unwilling to take low-paying civilian jobs. A federal official warned that this could leave psychologically traumatized individuals — many accustomed to violence and familiar with weapons — without a stable income, likely driving a surge in crime. As their quality of life declines, former soldiers are also expected to take out loans en masse, a source at a state-affiliated think tank told Faridaily.
- Workplace difficulties: Employers will face challenges as they are legally required to hold jobs open for returning soldiers, Faridaily’s sources said. Veterans will be difficult to fire, yet many may be considered “problem employees” due to alcoholism and antisocial behavior. “The best-case scenario is that they’ll be paid just to stay away from the workplace,” a Labor Ministry source predicted.
- Domestic violence and unplanned pregnancies: The return of soldiers from the front won’t necessarily be the joyful reunion many families anticipate, Faridaily writes. Wives, in particular, will be at high risk of facing violence from men with PTSD. Experts told the channel it will take at least a year or two for many veterans to readjust to family life. The Labor Ministry also expects a rise in unplanned pregnancies, while a government-affiliated think tank predicts a postwar baby boom. However, the sources said a steady, controlled increase in birth rates or the formation of stable new families is unlikely.
According to Faridaily, the Russian authorities appear to recognize the scale of the challenges returning soldiers will pose. Putin has put his niece, Anna Tsivileva, in charge of supporting former soldiers, appointing her as deputy defense minister and head of the state-funded Defenders of the Fatherland foundation.
“They [veterans of the war in Ukraine] must not end up adrift like the Afghan war veterans of the 1990s,” one person involved in the foundation’s creation said.
But the government’s ability to smoothly reintegrate the soldiers could come up against some hard limits. One of the main goals of the Defenders of the Fatherland foundation, for example, is to provide psychological support for former soldiers, Faridaily notes. But Russia currently has a severe shortage of both psychologists and treatment centers, the outlet’s sources said.
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It’s also the case that not just any psychologist can work with demobilized soldiers suffering from PTSD; it requires specialized training. Some Russian universities are now retraining students to deal with the disorder. “But these are young female students — do you really think an older, traumatized soldier is going to take them seriously? Of course not,” a Labor Ministry official said.
Additionally, Russia has a critical shortage of professional rehabilitation specialists and career counselors. According to one federal government source, the existing experts have so far been able to manage the veterans who have already sought help. “But if thousands return from the front all at once, the system could collapse,” the source said.
Another challenge the government will face is simply acknowledging the problems posed by the veteran’s return, sources noted. Admitting that such a problem exists could undermine the propaganda-driven image of “war heroes” — and for now, the authorities don’t have a strategy for handling this, Faridaily writes.
