‘A qualitatively new situation’ The Kremlin’s past warnings and first reaction to Biden’s approval of long-range missile strikes by Ukraine

On November 17, The New York Times reported that U.S. President Joe Biden had granted Ukraine permission to use long-range ATACMS missiles to defend Ukrainian units operating in Russia’s Kursk region. The same day, the French magazine Le Figaro wrote that France and the U.K. had authorized Ukraine to use their SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for strikes on Russian territory, though this information was later removed from the article. As discussions about Western countries allowing Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes have intensified in recent months, Moscow has repeatedly warned that such a shift would mark the beginning of NATO countries’ direct involvement in the war. Meduza shares some of the Kremlin’s statements before the authorization and its first reaction to the new policy.

Before Biden’s approval of long-range strikes by Ukraine:

Vladimir Putin, September 12, 2024:

“Flight missions for these missile systems can essentially only be carried out by NATO military personnel. This means that the question is not whether to allow the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with this weapon or not. The question is whether NATO counties directly participate in this military conflict or not. If this decision is made, it will mean nothing less than direct participation by NATO countries — the U.S. and European countries — in the war in Ukraine.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, September 13, 2024:

“We have no doubt that [Putin’s] message reached its intended recipients.”

Dmitry Peskov, September 22, 2024:

“There are still level-headed people in the West who are carefully analyzing these words from our president and who understand what they truly mean.”

Dmitry Peskov, September 26, 2024:

“[Russia’s change to its nuclear doctrine] is a signal to warn these countries of the consequences that would ensue if they take part in an attack on our country using any means, not necessarily just nuclear.” 

After Biden’s approval of long-range strikes by Ukraine:

Dmitry Peskov, November 18, 2024:

“If such a decision has indeed been made and communicated to the Kyiv regime, this represents a qualitatively new escalation of tensions and a qualitatively new situation in terms of the U.S.’s involvement in this conflict.”