Russia wants airline sanctions lifted and U.S. flights restored. Washington may be listening — but Europe could stand in the way.

As part of ongoing negotiations aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine, Moscow and Washington are discussing the possibility of easing sanctions — something the Kremlin has indicated it would be willing to make concessions for. One of Moscow’s proposals, mentioned by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April 11, is the lifting of restrictions on Aeroflot, the country’s flagship airline.

Lavrov said Russian negotiators first floated the idea more than a month ago, but Washington hasn’t taken a “reciprocal step” yet. That said, the U.S. has “taken note” of the proposal, according to the minister, and the issue is still on the table in talks about a possible ceasefire.

No — lifting sanctions on Aeroflot is just one piece of a broader push by Moscow to restart direct air travel between Russia and the U.S. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Kremlin negotiators are specifically calling for U.S. airspace to be reopened to Russian planes. Aeroflot’s stock prices jumped on expectations that sanctions might ease, but nearly two months later, nothing major has changed.

The proposal isn’t just facing hesitation from Washington — Brussels is even more skeptical. “E.U. sanctions stand firm against Russia, which includes a ban on Russian airlines flying over E.U. airspace,” a European Commission official recently told Politico on condition of anonymity. The official also flagged serious safety concerns, pointing out that it’s unclear whether "Russian air operators and air traffic services have been properly maintained over the past three years."

These are the same years that restrictions on the supply of new Boeing and Airbus aircraft and their components to Russia have been in place. During this time, Russian airlines have had to find workarounds, sourcing parts from countries like the UAE, China, and Turkey.

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Some parts, however, are now being replaced with domestically made Russian components. According to European officials, this raises the risk that Russian planes are flying with counterfeit parts (meaning ones not recognized by the aircrafts' manufacturers). “[There's] a high probability that bogus parts are being installed in aircraft operating within the Russian domestic market,” said Sander Starreveld, director of the consulting firm SIG Aviation, speaking to Politico. He added that E.U. authorities are also worried these parts could eventually find their way into the European market.

And that’s not the only concern. Even if Russian airlines were allowed back into European airspace, many of their planes likely wouldn’t be able to land — because of the risk they’d be reclaimed by their original lessors. (Russia seized hundreds of planes without their lessors' consent and sold them to domestic airlines after the start of the full-scale war.) As of early 2024, Russia had bought out over a third of its fleet — 165 aircraft — using funds from the National Wealth Fund. But a big chunk of the fleet is still at risk. According to Starreveld, Western lessors would jump at the chance to “recover as many assets as possible.”

And even if the U.S. were to make a deal with Moscow, E.U. officials would likely want something in return: permission for European carriers to fly over Russian territory again. Russia’s airspace ban has dealt a major blow to European airlines, who’ve had to take longer routes and have lost ground in the profitable market for Europe–Asia flights to Chinese competitors. Researchers at the German Aerospace Center say flying around Russia adds 100 to 200 minutes to flight times and bumps up ticket prices by 5–15 percent compared to Chinese airlines.

Still, even that hasn’t fully swayed the E.U. Economic pressure is real, but so are safety concerns. After the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane by Russian air defense systems over Grozny in December, the E.U. Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) recommended that all civilian carriers avoid Russian airspace altogether.

Assessing the Trump administration’s position on any specific issue — especially at the bargaining stage of negotiations — is extremely difficult. On the one hand, the U.S.'s current leadership clearly takes a more pragmatic (if not outright conciliatory) approach to the Kremlin than Joe Biden did. Trump regularly hints at offering Russia economic incentives for ending the war sooner, and the aviation sector could become a testing ground for a new reset in bilateral relations.

The potential lifting of sanctions on the industry could be justified not only by economic benefits but also by humanitarian concerns. As Robert Agee, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, said in a March interview with RBC, “[Resuming the supply of spare parts and technical support for aircraft is] less about business interests and more a humanitarian necessity, because it’s ordinary people who suffer most.”

There is truth to this: while Russia hasn’t seen a collapse in its civil aviation sector, the strain from sanctions continues to build. In 2025, experts are already predicting a noticeable drop in passenger numbers for Russian airlines (by six percent) — not because of falling demand, but because of a shortage of aircraft. Domestic production isn’t ramping up quickly enough to fill the gap.

In search of creative solutions, Russian officials have proposed more than just resuming flights and lifting sanctions on Aeroflot. They’ve also offered to exchange $5 billion worth of frozen Russian assets in the U.S. for new Boeing aircraft and parts. (Boeing doesn’t disclose its prices, but outside estimates suggest that amount could buy around 50 new jets.) Such a deal would likely become part of a broader ceasefire agreement — and it would align neatly with Trump’s protectionist agenda and calls to revive American manufacturing, in which Boeing has become a symbol of both ambition and dysfunction.

Still, all of this remains highly speculative. Despite Trump’s typically bold statements, the negotiation process appears to be stalling. Europe, unlike the U.S., continues to take a hard line toward Russia — and without Brussels’s support, any large-scale “aviation deal” seems unlikely, at least in terms of restoring direct flights. Finally, powerful import substitution lobbies in Russia are threatening to create unfavorable conditions for Boeing and Airbus, in a bid to give local aircraft manufacturers the upper hand.